Happy March 2026 and very best wishes to everyone as we start a new financial year — though we suspect that is a harder greeting to receive this month than usual!

We have now written to you twice in 2026 about the storms gathering over global markets. In February, we addressed the valuation reset and the early signs of geopolitical stress. On March 1, we wrote about the AI disruption narrative and the first wave of the US-Iran escalation, when Brent crude was climbing toward $75–80 a barrel. A great deal has happened since then.

• As of March 2026: the Nifty 50 is down 14% from its 2026 all-time high, the midcap index is down 12% and the smallcap index is down more than 21%
• Brent crude has settled near $108–111 following continued Strait of Hormuz disruptions and strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure
• The rupee has weakened to ₹94 per dollar

For investors who started SIPs or made lump sum investments in the last 24 months, portfolio dashboards are showing XIRRs between −20% and +3%. Naturally the question arises: "Should I hold my SIP until the market settles?" or "My returns seem to be going down. Should I stop at this time?" Let us examine this in more detail.

We hear from investors that this crisis feels different from prior ones — that the combination of a geopolitical war, a sustained oil shock, AI disruption fears and FII outflows is without precedent. While there are various challenges, this is not the first time we have faced multiple headwinds simultaneously. Let us look at time periods over the last 25 years where the Nifty fell significantly alongside elevated oil and deeply negative SIP XIRRs. The outcomes are consistent.

* Approximate SIP XIRR estimates at the trough of each episode. Actual returns vary by scheme, entry timing and holding period. Source: NSE historical data.

The pattern is unbroken over 25 years. In the worst case — the 2008 GFC, where the Nifty lost 60% and oil hit $147 — SIP XIRR at the trough was −32%. Three years later, it was +24%. The current episode, with a 15% Nifty decline and Brent at $108–111, is the smallest drawdown in this table by a material margin.

Before discussing macroeconomics, let us address the single most consequential decision before investors right now. Every market downturn produces a wave of SIP pauses. The data on what that costs is rarely shown clearly.

An analysis of the Nifty 50 across 5,000+ trading sessions over 20 years shows the following:

* Illustrative. Assumes ₹10L lump sum invested at the start of the 20-year period. Source: NSE historical data.

The difference between staying fully invested and missing just 10 trading days — out of more than 5,000 — is the difference between ₹96.5 lakhs and ₹32.7 lakhs. That is not a rounding error. It is the entire compounding advantage of equity over a 20-year horizon, lost by being absent for 10 days.

Consider two investors who both started a ₹50,000 per month SIP in September 2024, when the Nifty was near its peak. By March 2026, both have a negative XIRR. Both have received the same news alerts. The only difference is what each of them did in March 2026.

Priya, understandably anxious, paused her SIP for three months — March, April and May 2026 — intending to restart once the situation stabilised. Amit continued without interruption.

* Illustrative projection, assuming 12% CAGR post-recovery from the current trough. Unit count estimated at an average Nifty level of ~22,500 across Mar–May 2026. Actual outcomes will vary by fund and timing.

Amit ends up ₹5.2 lakhs ahead at year five and ₹13 lakhs ahead at year ten. This difference is not the product of better fund selection, superior timing, or any form of investment skill. It comes entirely from three instalments of ₹50,000 — ₹1.5 lakhs in total — deployed when units were cheapest. This is the mechanism of rupee-cost averaging. Falling markets reduce the average cost per unit of every SIP investor who stays in. The recovery, when it comes, amplifies returns precisely because of those cheaper units. Priya's pause eliminated that advantage for three of the most important months in the cycle.

• The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for approximately 27 days. This is without modern precedent. The 1987 Tanker War disrupted but never fully sealed the strait. India, which imports over 85% of its oil, is directly exposed.
• Crude at $108–111 is not a brief geopolitical spike — it has been sustained for several weeks. This feeds through to petrol prices, freight costs, food inflation and eventually corporate margins. The RBI faces a difficult trade-off between cutting rates to support growth and managing an imported inflation impulse.
• If talks collapse and strikes resume on Iranian energy infrastructure, Brent could approach $130, altering India's fiscal arithmetic materially.

• Diplomatic channels are functioning. Washington has delivered a 15-point peace proposal to Tehran via Pakistani intermediaries. Iran has issued a 5-point counter-proposal. Both deadline extensions have been granted at Iran's own request — a negotiating posture rather than an intractable position.
• India's domestic growth story remains structurally intact: GDP at 7.5%, FY27 corporate earnings growth projected at 12–15%, zero income tax up to ₹12 lakh, 125 basis points of RBI rate cuts already delivered, and the 8th Pay Commission under way. None of these drivers are affected by events in the Persian Gulf.
• J.P. Morgan's base case is Brent averaging $60 for full-year 2026, implying a sharp unwind of the current risk premium once talks resolve. Every sustained oil shock in the last 40 years — 1990, 2008, 2011, 2022 — was followed by a significant price correction within 12 months.

Stopping a SIP now converts a temporary paper loss into a permanent opportunity loss. As the Priya and Amit example shows, three missed instalments at the trough cost more over ten years than twelve missed instalments at the peak. If anxiety is genuinely high, the right response is to reduce the monthly amount — not to stop. Partial participation at the bottom is meaningfully better than zero.

The Nifty 50 PE ratio currently stands at approximately 20x — at its long-term historical average, not above it. Analysis of rolling 3-year returns from every month where the Nifty PE was in the 18–22x band shows an average CAGR of 14–17% and an 82% probability of positive returns. This is a historically strong entry zone. The fact that it does not feel like one is precisely what makes it effective — assets are priced cheaply because sentiment is poor, not because fundamentals have broken.

In our March 2 note, we observed that markets do not price permanent disruption — they price the worst-case scenario and then recover when that scenario does not fully materialise. Oil at $147 in 2008 was widely predicted to be "the new normal." Crude at $130 in 2022 was characterised as a structural shift. Neither persisted. Sir John Templeton's observation that "this time is different" are the four most expensive words in investing has not yet been falsified by events.

We have described 2026 as a year to build portfolios. In our March 2 note, we described India's long-term structural story as more powerful than any short-term geopolitical shock. The data as of March 2026 does not alter either of those conclusions.

The Nifty 50 has compounded at approximately 12% per year since 1992 — through the Kargil war, two Gulf wars, the GFC, demonetisation, COVID and the 2022 global inflation shock. Every episode in the history table above was, at the time, characterised by the same sense that this time was categorically different. None were. The current drawdown, at 14% from the January 2026 peak, is the smallest in the table.

We will not pretend the road ahead is smooth. The oil shock is real. The XIRR on your dashboard is real. We are not asking you to feel comfortable. We are asking you to look at what the data shows happens next — consistently, over 25 years — for investors who do not allow temporary discomfort to become a permanent investment mistake.

The investors who will look back on March 2026 most favourably are not those who avoided the pain. They are those who kept investing through it.